Le courant nord-atlantique dit AMOC Atlantic meridional overturning circulation devrait selon les simulations de deux océanologues s’arrêter progressivement d’ici le milieu du 21e siècle. Cet arrêt était initialement prévu pour le début du 22e siècle.
L e Gulf Stream qui contribue au réchauffement de l’Atlantique nord, pourrait également s’effondrer. Mais il en résulterait paradoxalement pour l’Europe des hivers glacials.
Cette simulation est contestée par d’autres chercheurs.
Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation
Bigthink https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/gulf-stream-collapse-amoc
Référence
- Published: 25 July 2023
- Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
volume14, Article number: 4254 (2023)
Abstract
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
Europe Solidaire 