Commentaire venant des experts du GEAB
30/12/2014 11:35:22 | Par : JP.Baquiast
Mes amis du Global European Anticipation Bulletin réagissent de la façon suivante à cet article. Je les remercie d'accepter que je publie leurs objections
First the BRICS are not an member organization and Greece is definitely
not a BRICS country.
Second as being a anticipation bulletin we are not directly concerned
with what we hope will happen or what we think will be the best.
So we have to analyze what the options are and the consequence of the
Seriza is primarily not interested in leaving the Euro (we know that
from his comments in 2011) but he will pressure Brussel to stop the
austerity program. He could find support in Spain, Italy and France.
He can also leverage on the Ukraine situation. Ukraine is on the verge
of a total financial collapse (thanks to its current and previous ruling
elite). The next IMF tranche for Ukraine is highly questionable.
Brussel can not support Ukraine and let Greece go down.
Here is some political leverage.
If Seriza leaves the Euro and introduce the dragma, all debt will still
be in Euro's, also private debt. As people get paid in a rapid
devaluation dragma relative private debt levels will explode and with it
the suffering of Greece people
If Greece leave the Euro, all of Greece government debt will be
worthless. This is especially for the financial Banking elite a night
mare scenario. All European debt will be questionable and the role of
the ECB in the EMU will collapse.
You have to understand that all money is debt, all Euros in circulation
are debt based and are not structural different from government
Obligation. As a part of the European obligation market collapse (for
example Greece) it will be seen as failure for Europe the EU and the ECB.
Do understand holders of huge amount of Euro's in cash like big
companies have limited choice to store their money. They can store it in
a Bank deposit, but with a deposit guarantee of 100K this is not really
an option. These companies use Sovereign Obligations to store their money.
These obligations are normally backed by the Central Bank. If a part of
the European bond market collapse it will have a devastating effect on
the EMU and the ECB.
As you said, Greece can do QE as it has its own currency.
The situation as we see now in Europe is a disgrace for Brussels.
Brussel should come up with a political plan and the ECB should back
that plan with a QE program. But reality tells us a different story. The
political elite in Europe especially in Germany and the Netherlands
still believe in an independent ECB. They do not understand Monetary
Policy is a political policy. Money is one of the means you can use to
govern your country. Private debt is incomparable with government debt.
Government can always pays it debt as long as it issues its own money. A
government that issues its own money can never default on its own debt.
That is the very nature of modern money, completely misunderstood by the
European ruling elite,
Some of the Brussels and Frankfurt elite rather see 90% unemployment in
Europe than increasing the monetary base. That said a QE program could
only work in combination with a political vision.
So the most likely outcome is a muddle through program after political
The austerity program for Greece will be relaxed, a win for Sariza.
The financial markets are desperate waiting for a new QE program, this
will be the excuse for the ECB to start a bond buying program.
We blame everything on Putin and the current situation with Russia.
Nothing fundamental changed for now.
Seriza will not pull Greece out of the Euro it will be the end of his
political career. Brussel will not let Greece go and as you write the
NATO will not accept Greece leaving the EU.
Remember the Civil war in the US root cause was secession.
> The question is really worth it and we intend to address it in the
> next GEAB.
> But I tend to think both your and your f scenarios are a bit radical.
> Syriza will de facto enter into a negotiation with the rest if the EU
> and will not be able to act apart. Even Orban doesn't do that.
> However it does change the game subtancially to have one EU leader
> pushing into the direction of restructuring... especially because
> Spain and Slovenia are just behind heading in the same direction.
> Indeed we could have some sort of a division within the EU between
> Icelandic-type of countries and the good financial markets' sheep.
> And if indeed some countries start smoothly restructuring, that the
> markets try to punish them but that in the end those countries happen
> to heal faster than the others, it could end up in a liberation of our
> continent from those financial markets.
> I'm more and more convinced we can easily do without them. Financial
> markets are meant to finance the economy. If they don't do that, what
> do we pay for so dearly ? The internet as always provides new ways to
> fulfill the same purpose; in fact, what's working in the conomy is
> based on that : crowd funding, cheap online banking, etc...
> And you are right that the BRICS are just behind, waiting for Europe
> to connect to them and enjoy all the new tools of their XXIth century
> Beware however of China which has been pushed into acting more like a
> new hegemon due to the US agressivity. The Europeans should make sure
> that they strengthen this time the conditions of their sovereignty.
> Pb: The US could react very agressively to such an evolution in Europe
> and it could also get us closer to what your friend describes for
> Greece : Nato boots on European soil... directed against us this time.
> I look forward to your comments on this very interesting discussion.